Ontra Launches Private Markets' First Forward-Looking Indicator for Deal Activity
Inaugural Market Index projects near-full recovery in Q1 2026 deal volume — a signal available now, months before closed deal data catches up
SAN FRANCISCO, March 18, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Private markets have no shortage of benchmarks, but each one is built on closed deal data that arrives months after transactions close. None can signal where deal activity is heading.
Today, Ontra is publishing the inaugural Market Index, introducing NDA data as a leading indicator for private equity deal activity. It projects that Q1 2026 deal volume will finish only 5% below Q1 2025 levels — a near-full recovery from the tariff shock, and a projection available now rather than in June when closed deal figures are expected.
Liberation Day: A live test
When the April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day” tariff announcement triggered a broad market shock, the index's value became clear. It showed that NDA volume across the private markets fell 30% year-over-year within days. Closed deal data didn't confirm the impact until June, when industry deal closing figures for the period became available.
Smaller firms — the bottom 80% by NDA volume — bore the steepest impact, with deal activity falling 30%, compared to 15% for large firms. Both cohorts recovered equally well compared to pre-shock levels by July, and NDA volumes continued to climb through Q3 and Q4 2025, finishing the year essentially at parity with 2024. That recovery arc — shock, divergence, and rebound — was visible in NDA data months before traditional sources confirmed it.
Why NDA volume works as a signal
The NDA is the first formal record of deal intent in any private markets transaction, preceding diligence, term negotiation, and capital commitment. It is the earliest systematic signal of where deal activity is heading.
"NDAs are the starting line of every private markets transaction, and for years, private markets firms have been making deployment and exit decisions with data that's already months old,” said Troy Pospisil, CEO and Founder of Ontra. “The Market Index changes that. Firms can now move faster when the market opens up, or time exits more deliberately when buyer activity is muted. Right now, the data points to near-full recovery from the tariff shock. The Market Index is an advantage that didn't exist before today."
About the index
Ontra processes almost 1,000 NDAs daily, including from nine of the top ten PEI-ranked asset managers. For this inaugural report, the analysis is based on NDA data across a sample of more than 150 firms. Validation across multiple time periods confirms a strong correlation (r=0.634) between NDA volume and closed deal volume 90 days later. The relationship is validated for stability across 2.5 years of historical data.
The full inaugural report is available here.
About Ontra
Ontra is the leader in AI-powered solutions for the private markets. Powered by industry-leading AI, data from over 2 million contracts, and a global network of legal professionals, Ontra automates critical private market workflows across the fund lifecycle. Ontra’s solutions transform unstructured data trapped in static documents into actionable intelligence, enabling firms to accelerate contracts, streamline compliance, and automate entity management. Trusted by more than 1,000 global GPs, investment banks, law firms, and advisors — including nine of the top ten PEI-ranked firms worldwide — Ontra helps firms focus on what’s important.
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